High taxes, high costs drive exodus: Pioneer Institute finds Massachusetts lost 182,000 people to domestic out‑migration since 2020
A Pioneer Institute analysis finds Massachusetts lost a net 182,000 residents to domestic out‑migration between April 2020 and July 2025, driven by high costs and taxes, threatening the state’s workforce, fiscal health and long‑term competitiveness.
- Net domestic out‑migration: ~182,000 people (April 2020–July 2025), roughly one‑and‑a‑half cities the size of Cambridge — source: Pioneer Institute.
- Primary cohort leaving: ages 26–34 — prime working and family‑forming years (see Pioneer Institute).
- International migration partially offsets losses: record ~230,000 arrivals (2022–2024), but reliance on immigration is risky amid national declines (Commonwealth Beacon; WGBH).
- Labor and fiscal signals: private‑sector jobs down ~18,000 since Jan 2020 and unemployment rose to 4.8% by December — implications for taxes, services and growth (Pioneer Institute).
Overview
A detailed Pioneer Institute analysis documents a net loss of about 182,000 residents to domestic out‑migration between April 2020 and July 2025. While international arrivals produced modest population growth overall — leaving Massachusetts at roughly 7.15 million (0.2% growth) — the composition of departures raises concern: the state is losing many younger adults in the 26–34 age band.
Why this is more than a pandemic story
Pioneer Institute describes the trend as structural, not solely a pandemic or remote‑work phenomenon. Data show elevated domestic outflows existed before 2020 and have persisted. Analysts point to persistent affordability and competitiveness problems — notably housing, child care, health care and education costs — as the primary drivers (Pioneer Institute).
“Losing the 26–34 cohort can reduce future economic activity and shrink the tax base for years to come.” — Pioneer Institute
Labor market and fiscal pressures
Key labor and fiscal indicators highlight the stakes:
- Labor force (2024): ~3.9 million, propped up by international arrivals (~230,000 from 2022–2024) — Pioneer Institute.
- Private‑sector jobs: down ≈18,000 (-0.55%) since Jan 2020, while U.S. private‑sector jobs grew >5%; fast‑growing states such as Florida, North Carolina and Texas saw >10% growth (Pioneer Institute).
- Unemployment: rose to 4.8% by December from a 3.2% low in April 2023; Massachusetts now exceeds most New England neighbors in jobless rate (Pioneer Institute).
Role of immigration and the broader national picture
International migration has buffered state population totals — about 78,000 international gains in 2024 helped offset domestic losses — but national inflows are volatile. Reporting shows national immigration declined from ~2.7 million (2023–2024) to ~1.3 million (2024–2025) and is projected to fall further in mid‑2026 amid federal policy shifts (Commonwealth Beacon; WGBH).
Demographic headwinds and projections
Other structural pressures include low birth rates, an aging workforce and fewer young people. State analysis notes average domestic out‑migration near 27,400–27,700 per year since 2013. Under a low scenario — where domestic outflows persist and international arrivals decline toward historical averages — Massachusetts could lose ≈28,000 people (0.4%) between 2025 and 2035. These projections assume federal immigration falls and exclude sudden policy changes (Mass.gov).
Primary economic drivers
Analysts cite a cluster of cost pressures that make Massachusetts less attractive to younger workers and families:
- High housing costs and restrictive regulation
- Expensive child care and health care
- Rising education costs and sensitivity to federal research funding cuts
Together, these factors reduce affordability and the incentive for households to stay or settle in state, especially compared with lower‑cost alternatives in the Sun Belt and inland states.
Policy recommendations and state responses
The Pioneer Institute urges medium‑ and long‑term measures to blunt outflows and rebuild the workforce, including:
- Improved immigrant integration and retention programs
- Expanded upskilling and vocational training targeted at high‑demand occupations
- Targeted affordability measures for housing, child care and health care
State leaders have proposed tax, housing and infrastructure changes that may help, but experts caution these will take time to influence migration decisions (Commonwealth Beacon; WGBH).
Implications for Walla Walla, Washington — lessons for local leaders
Massachusetts’ experience provides practical lessons for smaller regions like Walla Walla:
- Keep taxes predictable and minimize regulatory barriers to housing to remain competitive with lower‑cost regions (Pioneer Institute).
- Invest in workforce pipelines: expand vocational training, community college partnerships and employer‑led upskilling to retain 25–34‑year‑old workers.
- Plan fiscally: build reserves, prioritize essential services and pursue state/federal grants for housing and workforce projects (Commonwealth Beacon).
- Housing strategy: streamline permitting, encourage diverse housing types and support zoning for missing‑middle housing (Mass.gov).
Practical next steps
Local elected officials, business leaders and community groups should:
- Monitor migration and labor market data closely
- Expand local training programs and public‑private workforce partnerships
- Pursue housing reforms that increase supply and lower costs
- Study successful policies from states that have attracted younger workers and businesses
Acting now can help avoid long‑term declines in the tax base and workforce. Massachusetts’ experience is both a warning and a guide.
Sources and data links
- Pioneer Institute analysis: “Domestic Out‑migration Is Hollowing Out Massachusetts’ Workforce and Economy.”
- Commonwealth Beacon reporting on population change and immigration trends
- WGBH reporting on economic and demographic risks
- Massachusetts government demographic and housing projections (Mass.gov)
